Just how strong is Indycar at the moment?

[MonteCristo]

Just thinking aloud here.

Indycar's having a bit of a renaissance at the moment. Strongest driver field since CART in about 1999/2000. Strongest car count in a decade, and there's still talk about further full time expansion for some teams (RLL, SPAM, MSR). New TV deal to give sponsors more exposure.

But this is racing, and nothing ever lasts. I worry that it's still extremely volatile.

We're not really seeing new teams. Shank is the only real new starter for ages that seems to have survived. The rest are tacked-on efforts to existing teams (Paretta), or ones that fail (Harding Steinbrenner, Juncos, Dragonspeed). Carlin is hanging on by a thread on Chilton bucks. There are also the odd Indy 500 only entries (either new teams, or old ones).

So a lot of the expansion is actually existing teams adding cars, which is a bit of a worry if any of them ever go. It's one thing to lose one or two cars if a team goes under. But it's another to lose three or four. This being racing, where finances are often shady at best, this can honestly happen at any moment to basically any team apart from Penske (who is legit rich as hell).

But probably my biggest fear is the age of team owners. AJ Foyt is 86, Captain Liverspots is 84, Bobby Rahal is 68, Dale Coyne is 67, Chip Ganassi is 63 but looks 78 and I swear could go at any second from a heart attack. While Penske's son is in team management, and I can see Graham Rahal taking over from his dad (like Marco Andretti would take over from Michael eventually it seems - though that's not an immediate problem), I don't know about succession plans for the others.

However, the biggest succession plan cloud does hang over Penske. I mean, he owns the damn series now, four cars, and Indianapolis Speedway. Even if Jay Penske takes it all over ... who knows what will happen?

The strength the series has shown during Covid-19 has been extraordinary. But surely it only added pressure to the finances of many teams.

On the other hand, you can see other teams trying to get in that might survive (though not all will). Top Gun is slowly ramping up. Vasser/Sullivan are making noises to be a standalone team. Dreyer & Reinbold want to return. (As an aside, I don't think Buddy Lazier's son has followed through with the promise they hoped he had to continue a team. So scratch them.)

But with only two manufacturers, it all feels shaky.

Thoughts, anyone? Fears? Hopes? Dreams?

[Shutterbug]

Hope they continue to rise

[Ruslan]

Thoughts, anyone? Fears? Hopes? Dreams?

Well, you've tagged some of the concerns. The real problem is that the average American doesn't follow racing and are not gearheads. They used to. It is no longer the case. That is part of the reason that the teams owners are so old. They are maintaining a legacy, and their best hope is that their sons and grandsons will take it over.

Much of the renaissance is being fueled by drivers and money from overseas. If F1 had slots for 33 drivers (like it used to), then I don't think Indy Car would be getting near as much support. It is the limited opportunities to get to the top in European racing that keeps a steady supply of drivers and funding going to Indy cars.

The long-term picture (next 20 years) still does not look too promising to me, but in the short-term the series is back on the rise, so that is good.

Decades ago Foyt, Andretti and Unser were household names. I don't think Newgarden and Pagenaud are.

[SBan83]

Decades ago Foyt, Andretti and Unser were household names. I don't think Newgarden and Pagenaud are.

But Harvick and Elliott are. I think what's happened is AOWR just wafted off the American mainstream's mindshare over time (increasing Euro-style tracks, cars and unpronounceable foreign names, the split, 15 years of fractioned competition, poor marketing, decreasing TV time). Meanwhile, NASCAR increasingly became the main thing the US masses thought of when they thought 'auto racing'.

Signs of this is observable in pop culture too. On the highly popular comedy show Home Improvement which ran from 1991-99. Indycar and the Indy 500 would often get a mention whenever there was some discussion on auto racing, in the early episodes until around 94-95. The Andrettis were a guest in one episode and Robby Gordon and the entire team Derrick Walker in another. But by the tail end of the show, any conversation of auto racing was around NASCAR. In a 1998 episode, Tim grumbled about not being able to go to the NASCAR Michigan 400 due to a prior commitment he'd made to his wife.

Apart from that, as you said, the average person who should ideally make up their target market just doesn't care 'that' much about cars and motorsport in general. Many of them even see it as something that needs to go, or change, due to increased awareness about climate change, global warming, etc.

[Ruslan]

Well, the replacement of Indy Car by NASCAR as the dominant commercial series in American racing is odd to say the least, and for a number of reasons we could discuss for a while. A couple of significant ones:

1. Tony George split Indy Car up. Now, it was for the purpose of putting American drivers back into American cars going around ovals...but that format started dying after 1973 and by 1979, it had almost killed the series. What saved it was CART, with all those road course races, new American drivers and yes...foreign drivers. So, Tony George went back to a formula that was already failing and split up a solid series for the sake of doing it. The end result is his series turned into a feeder series for NASCAR.

2. Cultural Identification: NASCAR is still fundamentally a regional series, that people identify with because of cultural, social and even political reasons. There is a reason why Ronald Reagan started attending NASCAR races. There is a reason why in 2021 that 24 of their 38 races are south of the Mason-Dixon line. Of the 14 races outside of the south, only six races in the series are in traditionally "blue states."

With the American car culture having been in decline since 1973 (it really does date back to the first gas crisis), it has not changed equally across the entire United States. So our national race series has been in continued decline since 1973 while one of our regional race series has boomed. Some like to claim NASCAR is now a national series, but it really is not.

NASCAR's recent boom and bust cycle is also interesting, as I think that it became "the thing" for a while among some. I think a lot of that was due to cultural identification.

Many of them even see it as something that needs to go, or change, due to increased awareness about climate change, global warming, etc.

And in the United States we have one major political party denying that climate change is an issue.

[MonteCristo]

Yeah, NASCAR is no longer a juggernaut. Some reasons are self-inflicted (stupid rules that they're chasing their own tails over - stages and alike that maybe keep younger fans' interests, maybe, but lots of old timers don't care anymore). Some are cultural changes (cars aren't cool anymore, shorter attention spans, internet and fractured media).

It's also an opportunity for Indycar to wedge itself back in - but only to a certain extent. It still suffers from the same cultural impacts that NASCAR is struggling with. It will never be what it was in terms of eyeballs and money. But with smart management that doesn't mean that it can't be highly successful.

[Ruslan]

Yea, I actually don't know why NASCAR declined. Was it simply a fad?

But then again, I don't quite understand why it became so popular.

[MonteCristo]

Yea, I actually don't know why NASCAR declined. Was it simply a fad?

But then again, I don't quite understand why it became so popular.

It was a fad to a large extent I think.

It perfectly capitalised by a void created by FTG with the AOW split (I'm not sure how many fans swapped sides, but it certainly filled the void in terms of media coverage which attracted new people and maybe some converts); Dale Snr dying brought it into all living rooms. It was an era where not every driver was PR savvy - still had some genuine personalities; and new drivers mixed with old ones (helping to bridge generations).

But then it became too big and successful. Cookie cutter tracks took away week to week interest (didn't I see the same track last week? and the week before?). Drivers became more samey. Stupid rule changes to race structures (stages) and the championship (the chase). And some of the car changes didn't help at all either.

Combined with cultural changes outlined above, there was no way it would stay at the level it was in the late 90s and the first decade of the 2000s.

[SBan83]

Tony George split Indy Car up. Now, it was for the purpose of putting American drivers back into American cars going around ovals...but that format started dying after 1973 and by 1979, it had almost killed the series. What saved it was CART, with all those road course races, new American drivers and yes...foreign drivers. So, Tony George went back to a formula that was already failing and split up a solid series for the sake of doing it. The end result is his series turned into a feeder series for NASCAR.

About the IRL... you can't just suddenly plug in a series that tries to return AOWR to the way it was, so to speak, and expect it to succeed. Not when the decline I talked about had already been happening for the past 15-20 years leading up to it. By when NASCAR was already a juggernaut, with races like the 1994 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis drawing a full house (a region that was hardly the traditional bastion of NASCAR). The IRL was like attempting to start AOWR all over again, which was never going to work. Most of the big names were still in CART while IRL had fresh faces no one had heard of. Even someone like Tony Stewart, only people who went to his sprint and midget races in the mid-west had any idea who he was. It wasn't until he actually made it to NASCAR and unleashed his fiery personality and raw talent did he become a national superstar.

[SBan83]

Yea, I actually don't know why NASCAR declined. Was it simply a fad?

But then again, I don't quite understand why it became so popular.

It was a fad to a large extent I think.

It perfectly capitalised by a void created by FTG with the AOW split (I'm not sure how many fans swapped sides, but it certainly filled the void in terms of media coverage which attracted new people and maybe some converts); Dale Snr dying brought it into all living rooms. It was an era where not every driver was PR savvy - still had some genuine personalities; and new drivers mixed with old ones (helping to bridge generations).

But then it became too big and successful. Cookie cutter tracks took away week to week interest (didn't I see the same track last week? and the week before?). Drivers became more samey. Stupid rule changes to race structures (stages) and the championship (the chase). And some of the car changes didn't help at all either.

Combined with cultural changes outlined above, there was no way it would stay at the level it was in the late 90s and the first decade of the 2000s.

I feel the cookie-cutter 1.5-mile oval formula that increasingly spread across the schedule like a virus was one of the main reasons for the downfall. It led to teams focusing all their development on aero, and we know from F1 what happens when you have every team doing that - no one can pass. I'd sit through the 1.5-mile races and wonder just what the hell I was watching. I'd see guys backing off just to avoid abusing their tyres due to the aero push from getting too close to someone.

There were other reasons too like you said. The drivers began to get increasingly corporate due to the big-money sponsors. Fans who were drawn to the sport by its candid, regular guy personas like Dale Earnhardt, Neil Bonnett and Rusty Wallace, were turned off by the robots that were now stepping out of the cars. Ticket prices shot up, making it out of reach for many. The attempt to break out of the traditional southern markets also rubbed off a lot of fans, as it came at the cost of some of their most sacred events - one of the two Darlington events and tracks like North Wilkesboro and Rockingham were gone for races in places like Fontana, California, Loudon, Newhampshire, etc.

[Ruslan]

It perfectly capitalised by a void created by FTG with the AOW split (I'm not sure how many fans swapped sides, but it certainly filled the void in terms of media coverage which attracted new people and maybe some converts);

Yea, I am not sure how many Indy Car fans went to NASCAR. I get the feeling they just kind of quit watching racing. The boom in NASCAR seemed to come from outside of the usual collection of racing fans.