2021 F1 race thread *Round 1: Bahrain*

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#256

Post by DoubleFart »

Bottom post of the previous page:

I seem to remember that Lance Stroll was a Ferrari academy driver once upon a time. Word is that it's easy to buy a place in the academy, and they're more than willing to accept people despite not being top notch as they evaluate for their GT programme. See Stroll, Alesi and more.
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#257

Post by StargazerGaul »

Concerning Mazepin or any other driver, I don't find pleasure in beating any of them with a virtual stick. It is way too easy to be an armchair expert, and they are all just our fellow humans. I wish them all well and at least one excellent race by which they will be remembered.

Other than that, if Perez did not stop, and they all needed to go one more lap, Max would have an extra lap to pass Hamilton.
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#258

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Aty wrote: 3 years ago Thank you for explaining your position on value of lower series, however I am not so certain that you have explained why you are rating Mick Schumacher as low as you do. Are you sure that it is his skills we are discussing, and nothing else? I should end here my part with "let Mick prove you wrong", but unfortunately where he is today, that would be too much to ask of him.
Well, there is more thought that has gone in my evaluation than I discussed. For example, in his second year in F2 Mick Schumacher had two wins and 3 fastest laps. What got my attention was the lack of poles. In his previous year in F2 he had one win and one fastest lap (again no poles). The second place in the championship was taken by Callum Ilott, who in his first year in F2 had 3 wins and 6 poles (no fastest laps). The third place in the championship was taken by Yuki Tsunoda, who in his first year in F2 had 3 wins, 4 poles and 3 fastest laps. These differences in performance kind of get my attention.

Looking just a little further is two Russians, Robert Shwartzman in his first year in F2 with 4 wins, 2 poles and 1 fastest laps followed by Nikita Mazepin. Mazepin also had two wins and two fastest laps in his first year in F2.

Three rookies arrived in F1 this year. My nagging suspicion is that it should have been Callum Ilott, Yuki Tsunoda (check), and Robert Shwartzman.
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#259

Post by Ruslan »

Everso Biggyballies wrote: 3 years ago
Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
The fact that Mick Schumacher, with the advantage of his name, marketing value, and an F2 championship, only got to Haas is in itself a big red flag to me. I assume he has a multi-year contract with Haas.
I believe he is a Ferrari Academy / Junior driver, so his contract would be with Ferrari, albeit no doubt with a sub contract with Haas..... obviously as happened with other Ferrari Academy drivers (ie Leclerc and Gio of the current crop) they got positioned in a Ferrari customer team,Ferrari no doubt dishing out discounts on engines, transmissions and suspension parts, a few engineering staff members thrown in etc. With Haas I believe they also use / have used the Ferrari wind Tunnel and simulator when available. With Alfa this year haviing wanted to retain Kimi, and Gio finally looking half reasonable their only customer team option for Schu was with Haas. I know Ferrari have the right to put a driver of their choice in one of the Alfa seats.....obviously that is Gio, but who knows next year / in the future if Schu turns out to be any good maybe he will end up at Alfa next year at the expense of Gio, or of course if Kimi throws the towel in.. (Just throwing that in as an option, not based on anything I have read)

m sure Schumacher came with personal sponsorship, and as you say the family name that would also be to his credit. Mazespin of course is not aligned to any manufacturer but is purely a traditional style pay driver. He has a Father prepared to 'invest' tens of millions of his petty cash into his sons pastime, as was the case with Stroll and Latifi. Plus I have heard rumour that Mazein Snr. might be a future purchaser of the Haas team.
I don't quite grasp why Ferrari keeps Giovanazzi hanging on. He is not bad...but....it is clear that they are never going to draft him into a seat at Ferrari. So what is the purpose of a B team other to develop new drivers for your A team? A holding tank for people who you still kinda like?
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#260

Post by Ruslan »

P. Cornelius Scipio wrote: 3 years ago Having said that Mick's career will probably end in tears if he doesn't find another drive soon
My fear is that this is his first and last stop. If Ferrari is not seriously considering him for a slot at Ferrari, then it probably would have been best to just go let him run sports cars or something else. With two fairly young drivers parked at Ferrari (23 and 26), then how many years will it be until another seat opens up? Sainz has a two year contract, so 2023 there may be an open seat at Ferrari if Sainz has not done enough to secure it. If Sainz does secure it, then it may be a long wait indeed.
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#261

Post by MonteCristo »

Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
Everso Biggyballies wrote: 3 years ago
Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
The fact that Mick Schumacher, with the advantage of his name, marketing value, and an F2 championship, only got to Haas is in itself a big red flag to me. I assume he has a multi-year contract with Haas.
I believe he is a Ferrari Academy / Junior driver, so his contract would be with Ferrari, albeit no doubt with a sub contract with Haas..... obviously as happened with other Ferrari Academy drivers (ie Leclerc and Gio of the current crop) they got positioned in a Ferrari customer team,Ferrari no doubt dishing out discounts on engines, transmissions and suspension parts, a few engineering staff members thrown in etc. With Haas I believe they also use / have used the Ferrari wind Tunnel and simulator when available. With Alfa this year haviing wanted to retain Kimi, and Gio finally looking half reasonable their only customer team option for Schu was with Haas. I know Ferrari have the right to put a driver of their choice in one of the Alfa seats.....obviously that is Gio, but who knows next year / in the future if Schu turns out to be any good maybe he will end up at Alfa next year at the expense of Gio, or of course if Kimi throws the towel in.. (Just throwing that in as an option, not based on anything I have read)

m sure Schumacher came with personal sponsorship, and as you say the family name that would also be to his credit. Mazespin of course is not aligned to any manufacturer but is purely a traditional style pay driver. He has a Father prepared to 'invest' tens of millions of his petty cash into his sons pastime, as was the case with Stroll and Latifi. Plus I have heard rumour that Mazein Snr. might be a future purchaser of the Haas team.
I don't quite grasp why Ferrari keeps Giovanazzi hanging on. He is not bad...but....it is clear that they are never going to draft him into a seat at Ferrari. So what is the purpose of a B team other to develop new drivers for your A team? A holding tank for people who you still kinda like?
Yeah, I have no idea. All of last year I wondered the same thing.

I can understand a team like them going with a driver like Kimi if you have a raw young driver who lacks overall experience. Kimi is a steady pair of hands to judge relative pace against a newcomer. Kimi might be able to help validate setups/new developments better than a new kid. Kimi is also a well known figure that can help with getting some sponsorship (just don't expect him to do sponsorship events...).

But Giovinazzi is not some ultra fast kid who might be crash prone and needs the help of a senior (cough) driver like Kimi. Instead Giovinazzi just plods along.

He's not making a fool of himself at all. He just takes up a seat, seemingly without being: fast, showing improvement, or bringing in money. He's not all that young either.

So aside from being Italian, I don't know what boxes he ticks. Are there some powerful family connections somewhere?
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#262

Post by Everso Biggyballies »

Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
P. Cornelius Scipio wrote: 3 years ago Having said that Mick's career will probably end in tears if he doesn't find another drive soon
My fear is that this is his first and last stop. If Ferrari is not seriously considering him for a slot at Ferrari, then it probably would have been best to just go let him run sports cars or something else. With two fairly young drivers parked at Ferrari (23 and 26), then how many years will it be until another seat opens up? Sainz has a two year contract, so 2023 there may be an open seat at Ferrari is Sainz has not done enough to secure it. If Sainz does secure it, then it may be a long wait indeed.
I thinks Mick's best option in the 2022 lineups might be with Alfa. However this fraught with danger as Ferrari have other up and comers currently in F2 .... Callum Ilott is their official test driver and they have Fuoco and Rigon as simulator drivers. I think Swartzmann and Armstong are in the mix too, as is Arthur Leclerc. Clearly Schumacher is no Charles Leclerc at this stage of his career, but at least Leclerc had a better stepping stone to start from with his Alfa beginnings.

Mick's hope lies with the slim hope he can show a bit of form and maybe polish the turd that is Haas just a little this year. A big ask for a car that is not being developed at all this year. Maybe a standout performance could get him transferred to Alfa.

What will the 'new regs' 2022 Haas be like? I would not want to hang my hat or future on it tbh. Any improvement in Mick's results this year are clearly going to have to come from himself, with little improvement likely from the car.

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#263

Post by MonteCristo »

Everso Biggyballies wrote: 3 years ago Mick's hope lies with the slim hope he can show a bit of form and maybe polish the turd that is Haas just a little this year. A big ask for a car that is not being developed at all this year. Maybe a standout performance could get him transferred to Alfa.
A big ask.

Also worth considering when evaluating him if you're Ferrari (or anybody else): If Mazepin continues to be hilarious on a regular basis, then even if Schu Jr performs well will it actually be recognised?

The first task of a driver is to outperform their teammate. But what if that teammate is demonstrably useless?

If you're driving the worst car, against the worst driver, you lose any gauge of performance (good, bad or indifferent).
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#264

Post by Aty »

Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
Aty wrote: 3 years ago Thank you for explaining your position on value of lower series, however I am not so certain that you have explained why you are rating Mick Schumacher as low as you do. Are you sure that it is his skills we are discussing, and nothing else? I should end here my part with "let Mick prove you wrong", but unfortunately where he is today, that would be too much to ask of him.
Well, there is more thought that has gone in my evaluation than I discussed. For example, in his second year in F2 Mick Schumacher had two wins and 3 fastest laps. What got my attention was the lack of poles. In his previous year in F2 he had one win and one fastest lap (again no poles). The second place in the championship was taken by Callum Ilott, who in his first year in F2 had 3 wins and 6 poles (no fastest laps). The third place in the championship was taken by Yuki Tsunoda, who in his first year in F2 had 3 wins, 4 poles and 3 fastest laps. These differences in performance kind of get my attention.

Looking just a little further is two Russians, Robert Shwartzman in his first year in F2 with 4 wins, 2 poles and 1 fastest laps followed by Nikita Mazepin. Mazepin also had two wins and two fastest laps in his first year in F2.

Three rookies arrived in F1 this year. My nagging suspicion is that it should have been Callum Ilott, Yuki Tsunoda (check), and Robert Shwartzman.
It is very tempting to see correlation where one doesn't exists, or at least I doubt is proven in axiomatic terms. I am talking about conclusion I am drawing from your assumptions, namely, a driver is fast in qualification, therefore he is a good racer, at least good enough for the F1.

It was in different era, and with different equipment when some overtaking was possible and expected. Lets have a look at my past hero' data.

(Source: Wiki) Alain Prost
Wins 51
Podiums 106
Career points 768.5 (798.5)
Pole positions 33

I am hoping when current series will deploy machinery which permits closer on-track fights, then it will be proven beyond shadow of doubt, that to win a race, you need more than just being fast; what I mean is, it helps if a driver is fast, but there is more to it.
You seems to be an old hand in F1, thus I apologise if I sound like I am lecturing you. (Not my intent).

Mick surely carries burden with his name, and I do agree that F1 as his preordained destination was surely considered, but when chosen for promotion, people in charge usually look deeper than a mm deep. Mick didn't have always best equipment in lower series, thus looking at string of figures in isolation from other factors could be misleading. (I also gather I have nothing to teach you about stats, therefore again, my apology).
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#265

Post by DoubleFart »

Max Verstappen has 4 pole positions in 6 years. That suggests he's a crap qualifier. We all know the real reason why he doesn't.

Mick had equal machinery and simply doesn't seem fast enough over one lap.

It's what cost Sainz the Red Bull promotion - he could equal Verstappen in a race, and often better him, but he couldn't outqualify.
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#266

Post by caneparo »

Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
Everso Biggyballies wrote: 3 years ago
Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
The fact that Mick Schumacher, with the advantage of his name, marketing value, and an F2 championship, only got to Haas is in itself a big red flag to me. I assume he has a multi-year contract with Haas.
I believe he is a Ferrari Academy / Junior driver, so his contract would be with Ferrari, albeit no doubt with a sub contract with Haas..... obviously as happened with other Ferrari Academy drivers (ie Leclerc and Gio of the current crop) they got positioned in a Ferrari customer team,Ferrari no doubt dishing out discounts on engines, transmissions and suspension parts, a few engineering staff members thrown in etc. With Haas I believe they also use / have used the Ferrari wind Tunnel and simulator when available. With Alfa this year haviing wanted to retain Kimi, and Gio finally looking half reasonable their only customer team option for Schu was with Haas. I know Ferrari have the right to put a driver of their choice in one of the Alfa seats.....obviously that is Gio, but who knows next year / in the future if Schu turns out to be any good maybe he will end up at Alfa next year at the expense of Gio, or of course if Kimi throws the towel in.. (Just throwing that in as an option, not based on anything I have read)

m sure Schumacher came with personal sponsorship, and as you say the family name that would also be to his credit. Mazespin of course is not aligned to any manufacturer but is purely a traditional style pay driver. He has a Father prepared to 'invest' tens of millions of his petty cash into his sons pastime, as was the case with Stroll and Latifi. Plus I have heard rumour that Mazein Snr. might be a future purchaser of the Haas team.
I don't quite grasp why Ferrari keeps Giovanazzi hanging on. He is not bad...but....it is clear that they are never going to draft him into a seat at Ferrari. So what is the purpose of a B team other to develop new drivers for your A team? A holding tank for people who you still kinda like?
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#267

Post by Aty »

There is the nagging question which is on my mind for very long time, namely, how much credence have conclusions of a kind:

i) Not being fast enough over one lap: well, maybe a driver prefers race setup, over showboating on Saturday. Could that be a factor?

ii). Drivers have the same equipment, therefore it is good yardstick for comparison with his teammate.

Beyond labels, there is no such thing as the same equipment.
Comparison is used for simplicity so fans would understand it. Technically it is impossible. Manufacturing and assembly variances preclude equality. Then setup, tires, car design as its relate to a specific driver's preferences etc., it all adds to distinction of being sufficiently different equipment, which can make a one driver genius, and his teammate as someone who should not be in F1. Well known example of it was one Alonso vs Räikkönen at Ferrari.
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#268

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If Mick is focusing on setup, it's embarassing that he's only got 3 wins in 2 years.
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#269

Post by White six »

There's nobody left in F2 where it appears to be a massive tragedy that they missed out to Tsunoda, Schumacher or even Mazepin.

These arguments are very tedious. I hope they all do well, even our Russian friend
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#270

Post by P. Cornelius Scipio »

Ruslan wrote: 3 years ago
Aty wrote: 3 years ago Thank you for explaining your position on value of lower series, however I am not so certain that you have explained why you are rating Mick Schumacher as low as you do. Are you sure that it is his skills we are discussing, and nothing else? I should end here my part with "let Mick prove you wrong", but unfortunately where he is today, that would be too much to ask of him.
Well, there is more thought that has gone in my evaluation than I discussed. For example, in his second year in F2 Mick Schumacher had two wins and 3 fastest laps. What got my attention was the lack of poles. In his previous year in F2 he had one win and one fastest lap (again no poles). The second place in the championship was taken by Callum Ilott, who in his first year in F2 had 3 wins and 6 poles (no fastest laps). The third place in the championship was taken by Yuki Tsunoda, who in his first year in F2 had 3 wins, 4 poles and 3 fastest laps. These differences in performance kind of get my attention.

Looking just a little further is two Russians, Robert Shwartzman in his first year in F2 with 4 wins, 2 poles and 1 fastest laps followed by Nikita Mazepin. Mazepin also had two wins and two fastest laps in his first year in F2.

Three rookies arrived in F1 this year. My nagging suspicion is that it should have been Callum Ilott, Yuki Tsunoda (check), and Robert Shwartzman.
I think that you're making a very interesting point regarding young Schumacher: his issue is that he needs time to perform... if you check his progress in F3 it took him a year to be competitive, in F2 it seemed as if he needed time for each race week end. I wonder if this has anything to do with the weight on his shoulders. Because if he didn't have much speed he wouldn't be able to pull the fastest lap, he probably lacks confidence, but my point is that if you're good enough to set pole then you have the abilities to do the fastest lap and vice versa. The fact that he set 3 fastest laps to me means that he's got the speed, the fact that he set 3 fastest laps and no poles to me seem to imply ythat he's got speed but he struggles to be at his best from the first time that he gets in his car and needs some time to cool down a bit. When he was in F3 once he started winning he did well, I guess that he'll have a lot of pressure to perform at Haas, his problem is that he doesn't have much time, he seems to be someone who needs a bit of time to perform at his best and F1 normally doesn't work like that
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#271

Post by Ruslan »

Aty wrote: 3 years ago Lets have a look at my past hero' data.

(Source: Wiki) Alain Prost
Wins 51
Podiums 106
Career points 768.5 (798.5)
Pole positions 33
Well, Prost is unusual in that regard. From 1981-1985 he had 15 poles (and 21 wins). Then he got Senna as a teammate and competitor, arguably the greatest qualifier in F1. From 1986-1991 he had 5 poles (and 23 wins). Then in his last year in F1 he got 13 poles and only 7 wins.

Of course, qualifying is not the end all and be all of driver performance, but when I see Schumacher has 0 poles and Ilott has 6, it does make me wonder. Career-wise, Schumacher's six-year junior career shows 26 wins, 17 poles and 18 fastest laps. Callum Ilott 6-year junior career has 13 wins, 21 poles, 15 fastest laps. Yuki Tsunoda 5-year junior career shows 16 wins, 16 poles and 12 fastest laps.

My suspicion is that M. Schumacher is very well trained and developed, but may not be the next Hamilton/Verstappen.
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